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Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a US recession to 35% due to President Trump's tariffs, up from 20%. The bank anticipates that these tariffs will increase average rates on trading partners to 15%, leading to higher consumer prices and prompting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times this year. Economic growth is projected to slow to 1.5% annually, reflecting the negative impact of the tariffs.
UBS faces a potential $25 billion capital requirement increase due to Swiss regulatory changes aimed at addressing "equity double leverage" issues highlighted by the Credit Suisse crisis. To mitigate shareholder impact, UBS is considering options such as capping its investment bank and possibly relocating its headquarters, though it remains committed to Switzerland. Swiss lawmakers are expected to propose new capital rules in June, but final decisions may take years.
The taxpayer's stake in NatWest, formerly known as Royal Bank of Scotland, has dipped below 4%, now standing at 3.95% after a recent share sale. This marks a significant reduction from the 84% stake acquired during the 2008 bailout, as the bank moves closer to full privatization. Investment group BlackRock has taken over as the largest shareholder, while plans for a public sale of remaining shares were abandoned following the last general election.
British engine maker Rolls-Royce is looking to expand its U.S. manufacturing to counter rising global tariffs. Meanwhile, Santander-backed Ebury's London listing faces uncertainty amid market volatility, and Heathrow airport has resumed normal operations after a recent power cut. Ocado has scaled back its diversity targets, and Thames Water struggles to attract new investors due to challenges in asset record accuracy, despite a £3 billion debt bailout. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves is considering over £2 billion in spending cuts, including 10,000 civil service job reductions, to reallocate resources to frontline services.
Kemi Badenoch warns that half of Brits are reliant on the state, while Rachel Reeves faces criticism over potential tax hikes and spending issues. Meanwhile, Martin Lewis alerts households to incorrect tax codes, and council tax increases loom in several areas. Sir Gareth Southgate highlights online dangers for youth, reflecting on his impactful tenure as England manager.
Barclays customers are experiencing a fresh outage, prompting an apology from the bank. Meanwhile, Santander is offering £50 boosts to customers within 30 days, while Nationwide is alerting members about a £50 payment deadline. Additionally, NatWest is providing £150 in free cash under certain conditions.
Barclays has introduced a stamp duty completion guarantee for cases submitted by 25 March, anticipating a surge in applications before the April deadline when stamp duty rates will change. The bank has noted a 26% increase in average monthly completions, driven by a 59% rise in first-time buyer purchases. Conveyancers are urged to submit certificates of title early to ensure timely completion.
Barclays is set to compensate customers up to £12.5 million due to technology outages affecting services over the past two years, with more than 33 days of unplanned disruptions reported across nine major UK banks. The recent outages coincided with critical financial dates, causing significant inconvenience for customers. The bank attributed the issues to a software problem, not a cyber attack, and acknowledged the distress caused to clients.
Barclays has announced significant cuts to its mortgage rates, now offering the lowest five-year fixed rate at 3.96% for its Green Home mortgage, effective March 4. This move follows similar reductions by other lenders, including Nationwide and HSBC, in response to the Bank of England's base rate decrease to 4.5%. Borrowers are advised to evaluate the full terms of any mortgage deal before committing.
Lloyds will announce its earnings on February 20 at 7:00 AM GMT, followed by a management presentation at 9:30 AM GMT. Analysts anticipate a decline in annual profits due to car finance scandal liabilities, with the bank having set aside £450 million and facing potential additional costs of £1.3 billion. Despite these challenges, Q3 results showed resilience with a pre-tax profit of £1.86 billion, and key financial metrics indicate operational strength amid a complex regulatory environment.
Rachel Reeves
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